Tag Archives: Bank of Portugal

Public Debt Continues on a Reduction Path

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According to the Bank of Portugal’s Financial Stability Report (November 2024), the public debt ratio fell from 132.5% in 2014 to 97.9% in 2023, with the reduction continuing in the third quarter of 2024.
This positive development contributes to Portugal’s credibility in the markets, reflected in the improvement in debt return rates and the maintenance of its category A credit rating by four international agencies.
However, public debt remains high, and risks associated with external shocks or the economic cycle demand prudence and a commitment to consolidating a sustained reduction path.

Bank of Portugal Projections Point to Return to Deficit

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According to the Bank of Portugal’s June 2025 Economic Bulletin, after a surplus of 0.7% of GDP in 2024, the Portuguese economy is expected to record a budget deficit of 0.1% in 2025, with increases to 1.3% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027.
The expansionary fiscal stance observed in 2024 is expected to persist in the following years, albeit with some reversal in 2027. The balance sheet points to a further deterioration in the structural primary balance, reflecting the impact of the announced measures and the adverse economic cycle.
This scenario reinforces the need for public spending restraint and clear strategies to ensure fiscal consolidation in the medium term.

Recovery of the Portuguese economy driven by private consumption

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Portugal recorded 0.6% quarter-on-quarter economic growth in the second quarter of 2025, reversing the 0.4% contraction of the previous quarter, according to the National Statistics Institute.
On an annual basis, GDP grew 1.9%, up from 1.7% in the previous quarter. This performance is mainly due to the recovery in private consumption, a key driver of economic activity.
Despite this boost, the Bank of Portugal revised its growth forecast for the full year downward, reducing it from 2.3% to 1.6%, due to tensions in international trade.
The government, however, maintains a more optimistic stance, maintaining its expectation at 2.1%.
This scenario suggests some resilience in the Portuguese economy, but also reinforces the need for policies that foster investment, diversify export markets, and encourage sustainable consumption.