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Fórum for Competitiveness predicts GDP growth between 1.7% and 1.9% in 2024

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The Fórum for Competitiveness is more optimistic about economic growth in 2024, as indicated in the third-quarter 2024 “Business Perspectives” report. The Fórum has revised its projections upward, now anticipating GDP growth between 1.7% and 1.9% for 2024, compared to its previous forecast of 1.5% to 1.9%. For 2025, GDP growth is expected to be between 1.8% and 2.2%, aligning with the Government’s 2025 State Budget forecasts, which estimate 1.8% growth in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.

However, the Fórum highlights risks that could impact these projections. Nationally, there is concern about “high political uncertainty,” with the possibility that the 2025 budget may not be approved, potentially leading to early legislative elections. Such a scenario would be detrimental to economic performance, particularly in the investment sector.

Internationally, the economic situation is improving, though geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, are on the rise, with fears of an escalation in the conflict between Hamas and Israel.

Regarding inflation, the Fórum projects a slowdown, from 4.3% in 2023 to a rate between 2.3% and 2.4% in 2024, and between 1.8% and 2.2% in 2025.

Source: https://www.noticiasaominuto.com

Galp drops over 4% as oil prices decline. The Lisbon stock exchange loses momentum compared to gains in Europe

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Oil prices are pressuring the shares of Galp, a Portuguese oil company, which is the main reason for the decline of the Lisbon stock exchange, down 0.55% to 6,756.06 points. Galp is plummeting 4.41% to 16.36 euros, affected by a drop of over 2% in oil prices and by Petrobras’s interest in the 40% it owns in Namibia.

CTT is also down, falling 1.23% to 4.42 euros, followed by Ibersol, which decreases 0.55% to 7.20 euros after reporting a loss of 900,000 euros. NOS and Jerónimo Martins are also experiencing losses. In contrast, Mota-Engil is up 0.88% to 2.53 euros after announcing a sustainability-linked bond issuance, achieving its best position in the ranking of the 100 largest construction companies in the world.

In the Portuguese stock market, Semapa, EDP Renováveis, BCP, and Altri also show slight increases. Meanwhile, Europe opened higher, except for Lisbon, with Germany gaining 1% and the Euro Stoxx 50 rising 1.52%.

Oil prices continue to affect commodities, with Brent falling 2.22% to $71.28 and crude dropping 2.37% to $68.04, while other commodities like natural gas and coffee are on the rise.

Source: jornaleconomico.sapo.pt

The Government has confirmed a minimum wage of 870 euros

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The Government has confirmed that the national minimum wage will be set at 870 euros in 2025 and has presented a proposal aimed at raising the minimum wage to 1020 euros by 2028. This plan includes annual increases of 50 euros, starting with a 50-euro increase for 2025, instead of the previously projected 855 euros. The goal is to reach 1020 euros by the end of the legislative term, surpassing the initial target of 1000 euros.

Additionally, the proposal focuses on increasing wages in general and promoting economic competitiveness. The average gross monthly salary is also expected to grow, with a target of 4.7% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, reaching 1886.29 euros by 2028. The Government, led by Luís Montenegro, hopes to reach an agreement with social partners before the 2025 State Budget is submitted, which is expected on October 10.

Meanwhile, employer confederations have requested additional measures to help businesses manage the increased labor costs. The Minister of Labor, Maria do Rosário Ramalho, indicated that the agreement includes various measures from the Ministries of Economy, Finance, and Labor to support the economy and the labor market.

Rents and withholding tax

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Sometimes withholding tax is due when paying rent. So many doubts have arisen that we decided to list 3 concise and direct points on the subject to clarify.

1 – The person who must make the retention when it is due is the one who pays the rent, therefore the tenant.

2 – If the tenant does not have organized accounting, it is not necessary to make the withholding.

3 – The retention rate can vary, but the most common is 25%.

Government officially authorizes walk-in service at public offices without the need for prior appointments

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The recent Resolution of the Council of Ministers establishes that all public services must ensure walk-in service without the need for prior appointments and provide real-time information about capacity and waiting times. This measure was published this Tuesday in the Diário da República.

As announced at the end of June, the Government defined that “all services and entities of Public Administration that provide in-person service to the public,” whether or not integrated into a Citizen’s Shop, must ensure service hours “without the need for prior appointments, on a daily basis.” The submission of simplified documents will also no longer require prior scheduling.

Public services must provide appropriate, complete, and updated information in Portuguese and English, both on their websites and at physical locations. Additionally, it will be mandatory to indicate “in real time” the waiting time for service. The Telephone Translation Service will be promoted through the Migrant Support Line of the Agency for Integration, Migration, and Asylum (AIMA).

Priority service tickets will be made available for citizens with disabilities or incapacity, the elderly, pregnant women, and people with young children. State services must address any “physical accessibility constraints.”

Each entity must conduct a study to be delivered “within 180 days,” including an assessment of the number and adequacy of human resources for public service functions, as well as possible improvements to physical facilities; the identification of services provided exclusively in-person, justifying the need or possibility for digitalization; and an evaluation of the impacts of teleworking on meeting in-person service demands.

The Government of Luís Montenegro recommends that the bodies of the autonomous regions of Madeira and the Azores, as well as local authorities and entities of regional and local administration, adopt these norms for uniform application throughout the country.

The Agency for Administrative Modernization, under the supervision of the Minister of Youth and Modernization, Margarida Balseiro Lopes, will be responsible for establishing partnerships to expand the network of Citizen Shops and Citizen Spaces, an initiative that began under the previous Government and uses funds from the Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR).

Source: eco.sapo.pt

IMT Exemption Approved for Young People Buying Their First Home

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In the plenary session, the Government’s proposal to exempt young people up to 35 years old from paying IMT and Stamp Duty on the purchase of their first home was approved. The vote, held simultaneously at the general, specialty, and final global stages, received favorable votes from PSD, Chega, IL, CDS-PP, and PAN, votes against from PCP and Livre, and abstentions from BE and PS.

The measure applies to homes valued up to 316,772 euros and provides a partial exemption for properties between 316,772 and 633,453 euros, with an 8% tax on the amount exceeding this threshold. The executive intends for the measure to come into effect in April.

Source: https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt